In 2018, Paramount Pictures and director John Krasinski achieved phenomenal success with A Quiet Place, a horror film based on an original idea by screenwriters Scott Beck and Bryan Woods. The unexpected blockbuster paved the way for a thriving franchise. Now, the studio is expanding the series with a prequel titled A Quiet Place: Day One. With a stellar cast and a gripping premise, this film is set to break the current horror box office slump and become 2024’s first major hit in the genre.
According to Box Office Theory, the prequel is projected to open with earnings between $42 million and $51 million when it debuts next weekend. This aligns with early predictions from Deadline, which estimated an opening of at least $40 million. If these figures hold true, it will easily surpass the opening weekend records for any horror movie this year. The only notable competitor, Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire, opened with $80 million in March, while The Strangers: Chapter 1 from Lionsgate managed only $11.8 million in mid-May. Additionally, Kevin Costner’s Horizon: An American Saga is expected to open with around $12 million, posing little threat to Day One.
The past two years have seen several horror films achieve significant box office success, including Five Nights at Freddy’s, Scream VI, Evil Dead Rise, M3GAN, Smile, and The Black Phone. In contrast, 2024 has yet to produce a comparable hit. Smaller films like In a Violent Nature and Late Night with the Devil have performed well relative to their budgets, but none have made a substantial impact on the box office. In a challenging year for theaters, A Quiet Place: Day One has the potential to drive a much-needed boost in ticket sales.
Day One promises to take audiences back to the chaotic first day of the alien invasion that upended life on Earth. While Krasinski’s initial films provided glimpses of the world’s collapse, this prequel aims to fully depict society’s rapid descent into silence. Directed by Michael Sarnoski of Pig fame, the film features a talented cast including Lupita Nyong’o (Black Panther), Joseph Quinn (Stranger Things), Alex Wolff (Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle), and Djimon Hounsou (Shazam! Fury of the Gods).
The original A Quiet Place debuted with $50.2 million in 2018 and grossed $340.9 million worldwide. Despite the pandemic, A Quiet Place: Part II continued the franchise’s success with a $47.5 million opening and a $297.3 million global total. The first film had a modest $17 million budget, while the sequel’s budget increased to $61 million. Paramount likely aimed to keep the prequel’s budget within a similar range. Even with an $80 million budget, a $40 million opening would position Day One for a domestic gross of at least $100 million, assuming it receives decent reviews.
It’s difficult to imagine A Quiet Place: Day One not surpassing $200 million globally unless it faces overwhelmingly negative reception. Achieving this would be a significant win for Paramount, especially given the current low bar set by Night Swim at $54 million. With ticket sales down 26% this year prior to the record-breaking $295 million global opening of “Inside Out 2,” the timing for Day One couldn’t be better.
A Quiet Place: Day One is slated to hit theaters on June 28, 2024.
